The Other 24

Hillary Clinton won the New Hampshire primary, so what?

It was a surprise and no doubt a shot in the butt for a campaign that was struggling to hit singles. Winning New Hampshire could ensure a tight race throughout, rather than domination on the part of Obama. The vote was close, Clinton received 39 percent compared to Obama's 37, but what is of vivid intrigue is the 24 percent unaccounted for here.

Clinton played the role of Appalachian State, and won. Evidently emotion is in. What’s next? Bill Richardson on the Today Show, clasped fist held against a quivering chin, holding back tears as he describes his love for freedom. It might help him sniff double didgets.

By personalizing, Hillary did soften her image and dulled her ornery reputation, but enough to dig into the other 24 percent once lower tier candidates begin to drop out?

Numbers are going to change from primary to primary and, of course, the “other 24” will inevitably turn into another number. But just for fun, let's assume that tonight’s numbers will remain static.

That means if Edward's drops out, 17 percent of the vote would be up for grabs. Because she has established herself as the experienced candidate, the one who can hit the ground running, Hillary's persona does not fit the campaign's current buzz word, change. Juxtaposed against Obama's charming and confident change ethos, it seems likely that a majority of Edward's voters would support Obama rather than Clinton.

The icy exchange between Clinton and Edward's supporters this morning, while Clinton was visiting polling stations, also seems a good indication that Clinton and Edwards’s supporters are as compatible as oil and water. When Clinton went to shake the hands of a group of Edward's supporters, they refused, the entire time chanting, "The status quo has got to go!" Congenial? I think not.

Clinton can grab voters from Biden, Dodd and Richardson. But Edwards’s supporters, dazzled by great smiles and a populous message, will leap to Obama without giving it much of a second thought. In fact, the transition may be so smooth that some may not even know that their allegiances had switched. After all, the only person who conveys a better populist message than Edwards is Obama.

It is these voters, undecided in a sense, that will ultimately decide who gets the Democratic nomination. There is already a ticket of sorts formed on the Democratic side, Obama/Edwards ’08. Edwards could informally be included into the Obama campaign, his 17 percent share of the other 24 is Obama’s to lose. And it is this unofficial affiliation, Obama’s inroad into the other 24, which will ultimately win him the nomination.