Mc-Mentum

It seemed as if a once mighty, likeable, centrist politician was now failing. His maverick image buried under an affinity for the troop surge and surrounded by a sentiment that said his presidential aspirations were now caput - things were looking bleak.

A GQ piece entitled "The Unmaking of a President" chronicled how a man who was seen as an obvious front runner for his parties '08 nomination had floundered. "The most sudden political collapses of our time," about as cheery as a Dick Cheney Christmas, but exactly how GQ writer Robert Draper described a descent into mediocrity.

For all intents and purposes, John McCain was done. His poll numbers languished in the scant teens, some 15 points behind then front-runner Rudy Guliani. Still facing flack for his support of the troop surge, his image as a maverick, poof, was gone.

Since then, things have changed for the Arizona Senator. An acceptable third in Iowa and a likely win in New Hampshire could give McCain good momentum headed into Michigan.

Mitt Romney, a Michigan native, currently leads Mike Huckabee by 1 point in Michigan - McCain sits six points back in third. But consider this, in 2000 McCain beat George Bush in the Michigan primary by a convincing margin, 51 percent to 43 percent. This despite the fact that Bush had both the endorsement and promises of then Governor John Engler, who assured Bush that his state would act as a buffer for the Bush campaign.

Like in 2000, this year McCain won the endorsement of the Detroit Free Press, adding to a collection of newspaper endorsements already including the Des Moines Register and Boston Globe. These endorsements, combined with one from Joe Liebermann, are what gave McCain the spark his campaign needed to reenergize.

Additionally, helping McCain’s chances in Michigan are the fact that many Democratic front runners are not on the ballot. This helps McCain because blue-collar Democrats are much more likely to cross battle lines for McCain than Romney.

If McCain wins New Hampshire and is able to steal Michigan from Romeny, he becomes not only legitimate, but the Republican front-runner. This McCain as front-runner is the worst case scenario for Democrats. As Obama emerges as the head-and-shoulders candidate for the Democrats, the Republicans are struggling to present a strong unifying candidate.

If McCain could re-gain his status as a rock star politician, trade-in his wrinkled frown for the Maverick image that once served him so well, not only could he win the Republican nomination, but he could also serve as a real contender to Obama, or whom ever the Democrats put forward.

The experience and battle-testedness of McCain makes him the only real threat to Democrats in the general election. He can play the experience card on a plethora of issue, but what will make or break McCain's chances is his ability to reassume his once Paul-esque image as a Maverick. Every candidate has jumped on the change express, but only a few are believable. For the Democrats, the candidate with this credibility appears to be Obama. McCain needs to assume that role for Republicans.

People once believed he was a great change agent, a tough no nonsense politician who would stand up to the president and, well, change things. If McCain can again morph into this unifying figure he has a real shot.